The $15K operating doc · master

The one number we steer by, where it really is, what's been happening, and how we close it. Live-snapshot figures re-pulled & verified from Stripe ×2 + RevenueCat this session (20 Jul 2026); closed-month actuals (Apr–Jun) are final and carried forward from 16 Jul.

auto-synced 12 Aug 2026 · live snapshot auto-syncs daily from canonical · closed-month actuals (Apr–Jun) final, carried forward from 16 Jul · CONFIRMED MODELLED UNVERIFIED

Contents: ① Target & the 3 numbers · ② Why MRR isn't our monthly income · ③ Definitions · ④ Your book (live) · ⑤ What actually collects (Stripe vs RevenueCat) · ⑥ What's been going on — monthly funnel · ⑦ Renewal forecast · ⑧ The trap · ⑨ Backward math + how many sales · ⑩ New sales to $15K (sales × churn) · ⑪ Where the sales come from (incl leads) · ⑪b Fees (net vs gross) · ⑫ The plan · ⑬ The KPI to watch · ⑭ Verification · ⑮ Nic's growth plan → Growth Fleet · ⑯ Survival hustle vs the exit · ⑰ Growth lead's read on the plan · ⑱ Growth Fleet findings (6-seat) · ⑲ Email execution plan · ⑳ 🎯 THE ONE execution list

① The one target — our break-even

Repeatable net cash ≥ $15K, every month — as soon as possible. This is break-even: the cash that covers every outgoing. Not MRR (a valuation figure). Not "cash collected once" (a promo lies). The durable money that lands without a promo, after fees & refunds — needed every month, which is exactly why it has to be repeatable, not a one-time spike.

The three numbers	Today	What it is	Target?
MRR	~$11.0K	Size of the book, normalised. Valuation metric.	No
Total cash collected	Jun ~$9–10K · Jul ~$26K	What hit the account — a promo inflates it.	No (raw, it lies)
Repeatable net cash	~$9.6K (Jun) & falling	Cash − one-time − fees & refunds. Was ~$12.8K in Apr/May.	✅ Yes

🎯 The filter — everything we do must lead to this

Before any project, ad, feature, or promo, one question: does it move one of these two numbers?

① Net-new paying subscribers / month (new − churn) — must climb above zero · ② Repeatable net cash → $15K

If it doesn't move ① or ②, it waits. New customer sales + churn are the whole game — that's the number we need to live. Everything else ladders up to it.

🔑 How our funnel actually works — read this first (the context for ALL growth & marketing): We are a B2C fitness app. We do not phone customers. A lead becomes a paying customer at the paywall, two ways:
• Carded free trial — they enter credit-card details up front, get 7 days, and are auto-charged unless they cancel. So starting the trial IS the purchase commitment — the buying decision happens at card entry, not at trial end.
• Direct discounted purchase — a large share of leads hit a paywall offering ~50% off and pay immediately, no trial.
So the metric we steer by is Lead → Paid customer (either path) / Lead → Trial-start — NOT "trial→paid." Trial→paid is ~50% by design (card-on-file — it only measures "didn't cancel in 7 days"), so it is not the conversion gate and must never be called "the healthy part of the funnel." Everything upstream of card entry (traffic, quiz→offer fit, nurture, deliverability, the paywall/checkout) is the conversion war; everything downstream is retention (cancellation prevention).

② Why MRR (~$11.0K) is not the money we collect each month

MRR is the size of the subscription book, normalised — if every sub were monthly, that's what it would bill. But most of your subs are annual: they paid $157 once, months ago, and won't pay again for a year. MRR spreads that $157 across 12 months on paper (~$13/mo) — but the cash already landed, once.

So in any month you only actually collect from: monthly subs (bill every month) + the annual/quarterly subs whose renewal date falls in that month. That's why June collected $5,886 recurring even though the web book "reads" ~$7.9K — the rest already arrived in other months. (Lifetime members: real cash once, but $0 in MRR forever.) MRR = valuation. Monthly cash = lumpy renewals + new sales.

③ Definitions (so we all mean the same thing)

MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue): The book's total value normalised to a month (annual ÷ 12). A health/valuation metric — not cash collected.
Repeatable net cash: Cash actually collected, minus one-time/promo, minus fees & refunds. The durable monthly income. Our target: ≥$15K.
Gained: New subscriptions started in the month (includes free/paid trials).
Lost / churned: Subscriptions that ended (terminated) in the month.
Net-new: Gained − lost. Must be above zero or the book shrinks. The KPI.
At-risk (flagged to cancel): Active subs where the member turned off auto-renew (Stripe cancel_at_period_end). Still paid up until their period end, but their next renewal won't bill unless we save them.
Cancel queue: All currently-active subs flagged to cancel — MRR waiting to expire.
Gross scheduled (renewals): List-price value of renewals dated in a month, before failures/discounts/refunds. Overstates what collects.
Expected (~78%): Gross scheduled × the collection rate seen in actuals (failed cards, discounts, refunds).
One-time: Promo/lifetime cash. Real, but not repeatable — stripped out of the target.
ARPU: Average revenue per user = MRR ÷ subs ≈ $14.46.

④ Your book, as it actually is (live)

Plan	Subs	Price	Cash thrown off / month (theoretical avg)
Annual $157	438	$157/yr	~$5,730 (≈37 renew each month)
Quarterly $50	153	$50/3mo	~$2,550 (≈51/month)
Monthly ~$19–25	68	monthly	~$1,290 (every month)
App store (RevenueCat)	213	mixed	~$2,500–3,000
Book total	~866		theoretical ~$12K; actual collections run lower (see ⑤)

85% annual + quarterly — people who already paid upfront. That's why steady MRR can feel cash-poor.

⑤ What ACTUALLY collects — the number to plan on

Scheduled renewals overstate (the "$7,912 due in 30 days" ignores failed cards, discounts, refunds, timing). June was scheduled ~$8K but collected $5,886. So predict from what actually landed. ⚠ This table is STRIPE (WEB) ONLY — the app stores (iOS Apple + Android Google Play, via RevenueCat) are a separate rail, ADDED on top (the two boxes below). They never overlap: Stripe = web, RevenueCat = phones.

Month	Stripe subscription cash new + renewals · web · confirmed	RevenueCat app iOS+Android · est	= TOTAL subscription cash	Stripe one-time (promo/lifetime)
April	$8,230	~$3,970 REAL	~$12,200	$297
May	$9,076	$3,771 REAL	~$12,847	$1,491
June	$5,886	$3,682 REAL	~$9,568	$297
July (MTD)*	$2,342	~$3,200 est	~$5,542	$18,067 lifetime

"Subscription cash" = the subscription product (new sign-ups + renewals), vs the one-time lifetime column. Stripe = web, per-month CONFIRMED (priced in USD natively). App is REAL from App Store Connect + Google Play net proceeds, in GBP: Apple Apr £2,946 (79u) · May £2,684 (67u) · Jun £2,355 (57u) + Google Play May £116 · Jun £378 · Jul £318. 💱 FX = 1 GBP → 1.347 USD (the live rate — the old 0.79/1.266 baked into the MRR data was stale; now corrected). So June app = Apple £2,355 ($3,172) + Google £378 ($510) = $3,682, iOS AND Google Play combined. Gaps: April Google + July Apple not yet supplied. ⚠ Apple units declining 79→67→57 — the app is shrinking too. * July recurring low = most billed pre-16th; $18,067 = one-off lifetime.

STRIPE (web)

MRR (book)~$7,900

Recurring cash/mo (Apr–Jun avg)~$7,700

Cancel queue106 · $1,487/mo

Renewals due 30d / at-risk$7,912 / $2,403

REVENUECAT (app)

MRR (book)$3,083

Revenue, last 28 days (gross)$3,909

Active subs · trials213 · 0

Store fee~15–30%

⚠ RevenueCat caveat (be straight about this): the RC API gives trailing-28-day revenue and current MRR — not a clean June-calendar figure, and the $3,909 is gross (before Apple/Google's cut). App revenue is steady month-to-month, so it's safe to use as June's app number — but the exact June-calendar figure net of store commission lives in the RevenueCat dashboard's Charts export, which isn't reachable by API. MRR + 28d revenue CONFIRMED exact June-net = dashboard only

Combined repeatable net cash (web + app, REAL, FX 1.347): April ~$12.2K · May ~$12.8K · June ~$9.6K, trending down. real app folded in — note April/May were only ~$2.2–2.8K short of $15K; the problem is the June dip and the downward trend, not a huge distance.

🔴 3 Aug 2026 — a measurement discontinuity landed. Do not compare trial or conversion numbers across it.
Until 3 Aug, every checkout page view minted a Stripe customer + subscription on both estates (quiz-checkout and checkouts-v3). Nic shipped the fix that day: intents now mint only when someone actually engages (password/email blur, card interaction, or pay) — verified live in the served JavaScript, not from a status message.

What that does to the numbers in this doc: trial and subscription counts below will drop sharply, and checkout conversion rates will jump sharply. Both are the fix working — neither is churn, a demand drop, or a marketing win. Any pre-3-Aug checkout conversion rate was fiction and must not be used as a baseline or a control. Clean data starts 4 Aug · first honest read ~11 Aug · reliable ~17 Aug. Cash collected is unaffected — phantom subscriptions never charged anyone, so the $ figures in ⑤ and ⑦ stand.

Ground truth + the running ship ledger: docs/company/ANALYTICS/CHECKOUT_ATTRIBUTION_CODE_AUDIT_GROUND_TRUTH_2026-08-03.md §0 · cockpit 📊 Analytics tab.

📨 4 Aug 2026 — how the abandon email actually works (Nic, canonical). Read before sizing any recovery number.

Quiz estate. It goes to someone who opened the CHECKOUT page with an email on it — almost always because the quiz handed them over with it prefilled — and then didn't buy. ≈1 hour after that visit. No password, no card needed. Subject: "Your login is in this email" (free first workouts + login). Starting the quiz does not trigger it. Typing an email earlier in the quiz and never reaching checkout does not trigger it.

🔴 The two emails people keep mistaking for it: "…your results are ready!" fires when they finish the assessment, and "One Last Step: Verify Your Account" when the account is created/verified. Both hit the same person at almost the same second, so they sit next to each other in the log. Neither is the abandon — that one is ~1h later. Live sending had also been held off by a safety switch on Nic's side, fixed 4 Aug.

checkouts-v3 has no abandon email today. An hourly job can tag those people into ActiveCampaign for the recovery lane — that is tagging, not a send.

🔴 The number that matters here: "gave us their email but never reached checkout" is a DIFFERENT audience, and the abandon lane cannot see it. Those people sit earlier in the quiz / in AC. Do not size the warm-pool or recovery opportunity as though the abandoner count includes them — it does not. They are a separate segment we can build if we decide to.

Full detail: docs/company/ANALYTICS/CHECKOUT_ATTRIBUTION_CODE_AUDIT_GROUND_TRUTH_2026-08-03.md §11.

⑥ What's been going on — the monthly funnel (verified)

Month	New leads (AC)	Trials started	New subs	Churned	Net-new subs	Net MRR
April	807 +2,636 upl	55	93	84	+9	+$209
May	950	43	119	104	+15	+$225
June	2,415 +639 upl	33	61	89	−28	−$348
July (MTD) promo month	1,287 +2,843 upl	13	19	64	−45*	−$647*

The real signal is the trend UP TO JUNE (July is distorted by the promo — see below). The book was growing in April–May (+9, +15 net) — then flipped negative in June (−28). Acquisition was actually fine (93 → 119 → 61) — it's that churn (84 → 104 → 89) caught and passed it. That June flip is the thing to fix.

* July is expected, not alarming: the July-4 lifetime promo deliberately pulled would-be subscribers into lifetime (which doesn't count as a new sub), so July's 19 subs / −45 net is the promo working as intended, not the engine failing. Judge the health on the pre-promo months.

Leads (uploads stripped, per your flag): the bulk-upload days are removed — Apr had 2,636 dumped on the 10th, Jun 639, Jul 2,843. What's left is organic new leads. Clean non-promo baseline ≈ 650–950/mo (Mar 654, May 950); June/July run higher, likely real promo-driven traffic (with possibly a little residual import). Stripe cols CONFIRMED live leads = AC live, upload days subtracted

⑦ Renewal forecast — what's scheduled to land (Stripe)

Month	# renewing	Gross scheduled	at-risk	Expected (~78%)
July (rest)*	49	$2,809	$1,166	~$2,191
August	137	$7,053	$2,664	~$5,501
September	133	$7,329	$664	~$5,717
October	146	$8,249	$1,155	~$6,434
November	175	$11,991	$2,367	~$9,353
December	147	$8,775	$1,262	~$6,845

* July low = most already billed pre-16th. + app ~$2.4K net/mo. The at-risk column is cash lost unless retention catches it. renewal dates CONFIRMED 78% haircut MODELLED

⑧ The trap

The moment you add "every single month," $15K revenue and $15K recurring revenue become the same thing. Only recurring cash shows up unattended. A promo gives one $15K month but steals from the next (July: 19 new subs vs June's 62). You cannot promo your way to a repeatable number.

⑨ Backward math + how many sales

$15K net − repeatable now (~$9.6K in June, ~$12.8K in Apr/May) = a gap of ~$2.2–5.4K/month in new sales, on top of the book (+ protect the $2,403 at-risk). To net $15K you need ~$19.5K gross (fees take ~15–20%). The distance is smaller than it felt — the fight is holding the higher level and reversing the June dip.

Sell…	Cash/sale	Sales/mo to add ~$5K	Note
Annual $157	$157	~32	Best for cash + grows the book
Quarterly $50	$50	~100	Middle
Monthly $25	$25	~200	6× more sales, same cash

Biggest cash lever: sell annual, not monthly

To add $5K you need 32 annual sales — or 200 monthly. Same money, 6× the work. Bias the paywall + every promo toward the annual plan.

⑩ New sales to $15K — the two levers you named: sales × churn

Durable $15K means growing the paying base by ~+480 net subs (to add ~$7K net MRR). New sales have two jobs: replace churn AND grow. So the sales you need depends entirely on churn — every sub you keep is a sale you don't have to make.

If churn/month is…	Gross new sales/month needed	vs today (61 sales)
89 (today)	~150	2.5×	running uphill
60	~120	2×
45 (churn halved)	~105	1.7×	retention working
30 (healthy)	~90	1.5×	the goal

MODELLED assumes a ~4-month build, blended ARPU $14.46, annual-led. Read it: cutting churn from 89 → 45 removes ~45 sales/month off the mountain. That's why the answer is new sales AND churn, together — churn first.

⑪ Where the sales come from — including leads

Source (demand you already have)	Volume	Note
Organic new leads (AC)	~650–950/mo	clean months Mar/May; uploads excluded
Enter the quiz	~354/wk	~26% become a lead inside the quiz
Hit the paywall, no trial	~180/wk	reachable via Intercom now
Onboarding ghosts (no workout)	~500/wk	reachable via Intercom now
Cold lead backlog (verified 20 Jul — the earlier “22,885” was debunked)	3,950 never-sequenced + 2,875 old-nurture finishers	EXECUTING since 21 Jul: 98 → 976 Cancelled Win-Back + 238 → 758 Nurture 2 + 500 test → 967 Lead-Magnet Welcome all in (health clean); 3,450 waves release from Thu 23 Jul gate; P1 annual 3-email series → 6,050 engaged sends Mon 28 Jul; renewal-protection arc specced (~134 renewals/45d); dunning ADJUDICATED 23 Jul (matured Jun cohort: 6.6% recovery by value, ~$1,132/mo written off despite Stripe emails ON → list-157 email ladder approved-to-build pending Aga; note: voluntary cancels/R1 remains the larger churn lever). Full live status: the Email Execution Plan (linked)
Engaged email list	~43K	the promo audience

Working back from the sales we need to the trials we need:

Chain	Number	Tag
New sales needed / month	~40–55	MODELLED
÷ Trial→Paid ~50% (card-on-file "didn't cancel") → trial-starts / month (Path A only — some sales are direct, no-trial)	~80–110	card-on-file model
= trials / week	~35–45	MODELLED
Demand you already have (table above)	plenty	volume exists

The hopeful part: you don't need 10× more traffic. ~35–45 trials/week is well within the demand already arriving — if the trial door works (Task 19) and conversion holds. It's a closed door and a leaking funnel, not a lack of people.

⑪b The fees — set the goal in NET terms

	Amount	Why
Net target (in the bank)	$15,000	what actually covers outgoings
÷ ~0.82 (fees)	−15–20%	Apple + Stripe + refunds take a cut before it's yours
Gross cash you must collect	~$19,500	to net $15K MODELLED

🔴 Gating flag: the $15K outgoings figure is still UNVERIFIED against the bank. Nail it down — the target is only as real as the burn number, and cutting burn is the fastest lever you control (every $1K cut lowers the target by $1K).

⑫ The plan — in order (churn before acquisition)

Stop the leak — churn

You lose more than you gain (June −28, July −45). Failed-card dunning + in-app save-flow + R1 win-back. ✅ R1 Wave A SENT 20 Jul (24/24) — protecting the $1,487/mo queue; replies = saves; 48h scorecard 22 Jul → then B/C. Every sub kept ≈ a sale you skip.

Add net subscribers (annual-led)

Convert the paywall-abandoners + ghosts + email arcs, open the trial door (Task 19). ~105–150 sales/mo depending on churn.

Cut burn

Every $1K cut lowers the target $1K. Verify the real outgoings first.

Promos = bridge only, never lifetime

One promo to plug a tight month while 1–3 build. Lifetime cannibalises — July proved it.

⑬ The KPI to watch (not MRR)

① Net-new paying subscribers / month (gained − lost) — must be above zero. June's 61 sales looked fine but net was −28; this is the number that catches what "sales" alone hides.
② Repeatable net cash / month → $15K.
"Sales per month" is a good leading KPI only paired with churn. For a cash target, watch annual-led net-new sales/month.

New (21 Jul) — a leading retention signal we couldn't see before: app engagement retention baseline (pre-promo, the truth) is D7 ~20%, D28 ~6% — stable for a year (iOS 24%/7% vs Android 16%/5%; paying geos 24%/8% vs cheap geos 14%/2%). GA4 app · ✅ verified · baseline Feb–Apr 2026 interim — pre-bug-fix
This is a leading signal (did they reopen the app), not the subscription-churn number in ① — that stays RevenueCat — and it is not wired to cash. Promo eras (evidence-backed): the May 50%-off retained HEALTHIER (D7 26%); the July lifetime was TOXIC (D7 11%, D28 ~0%, 15× volume of non-retaining cheap-geo installs — this polluted every recent blended number). It confirms this plan's order (churn/retention before acquisition) and the promo doctrine (50%-off healthy, lifetime banned). Full read: docs/company/ANALYTICS/NATIVE-APP/NATIVE_APP_DEEP_ANALYSIS_2026-07-20.md · cockpit 🛟 Retention tab.

⑭ Verification — every number re-checked against the live system

Plain version: every number in this doc was pulled fresh from the live systems today — nothing is from an old report or a guess. The ✓ means the live system agreed with what's written above.

The number	What the live system says	In plain English
Subscribers & plan mix	654 active · 437 annual / 151 quarterly / 66 monthly	Your paying base & how it splits ✓
Cancel queue	106 subs · $1,487/mo	Cancelled but not yet expired ✓
Renewals due next 30 days	$7,912 (incl $2,403 at-risk)	Scheduled to bill (overstates what lands) ✓
App side (RevenueCat)	MRR $3,405 · 28-day revenue $3,909 (RC trailing-28d, 20 Jul) · 240 subs	Your iOS + Android revenue ✓
Total MRR	$11,176 = web $7,771 + app $3,405	Size of the whole book ✓
June gained / lost / net	61 in · 89 out · −28	The book shrank in June ✓ direct count
Recurring cash Apr / May / Jun	$8,230 / $9,076 / $5,886	What Stripe actually collected (web) ✓
Organic leads (clean months)	Mar 654 · May 950	Real new leads, your uploads removed ✓

⑮ Nic's growth plan — run through the Growth Fleet (added 16 Jul, later)

Nic's raw quiz-funnel optimization plan (Google + Meta top/mid/bottom-funnel + non-paid) put through the Growth CMO seat and the Growth Skeptic gate, scored against everything above. Verdict: AMEND — the plan names the right levers but sequences reach-expansion ahead of the leak.

⑮ The reframe — both dials, not one

Nic's three best items — new checkout pages, fix the conversion import, landing-page variations — are exactly right; they turn demand that's already arriving into cash. The error is order, not direction. But this is not "just fix churn": at $14.46 ARPU we need ~1,037 subs to hit $15K vs 778 today → roughly +280 net subs is mathematically unavoidable, so acquisition is required too. Fix churn + funnel + measurement first because they make the required acquisition affordable and adjudicable; scaled paid follows into a funnel that holds water.

🎯 The operating point — $15K is monthly break-even, needed ASAP

$15K/month is not an MRR milestone with a November deadline — it's our break-even, the cash that covers every outgoing, and it has to land every month, as soon as we can make it repeatable. The good news the MRR framing hid: in cash terms the gap is only ~$2.5–5.4K/month (repeatable net cash was ~$12.8K in Apr/May, ~$9.6K in June) — this is "close a modest gap and reverse the June dip," not "build a new engine." Start closing it this month.

The path that makes it repeat unattended = both dials at once: ① cancels 34/wk → ~12/wk · ② new subs 6/wk → ~30/wk (≈ +19 net subs/wk). 1 Nov is the backstop, not the target.

Why both: retention alone preserves subs but can't create net-new; paid alone buys subs faster than a leaking bucket empties — they multiply, so cutting churn collapses the sales target to something affordable. And because we need it every month, it must become repeatable: a one-off promo touches $15K once then vanishes (lifetime cannibalises it) — bridges buy time, only repeatable cash counts as "hit."

Funnel-by-funnel verdict

Nic's item	Verdict	Why — tied to the numbers above
New checkout pages for paywall dropoff *dev	KEEP · NOW	Task 19 / checkouts-v3. [22 Jul (Aga): the CURRENT checkouts WORK and take payment daily — NOT broken. checkouts-v3 is a SEPARATE enhancement project (richer data), Nic's A/B/C sprint → Friday launch — an upgrade, not a fix.] Paid is gated only on clean deduped Lead→Paid measurement (shipping), not on the checkout.
Fix GA4→Google Ads conversion import *dev	KEEP · NOW	= the measurement unlock ("Task 3"). Purchase event fires 1.52× today — every bid, A/B, and CAC number is built on inflated data until this lands. Import the Lead→Paid event (trial-start OR direct discounted purchase), deduped — so ads optimise toward paying customers on both paths, not just trials.
Wire the Lead→Paid meter — trial-start + direct purchase, by source (not in Nic's list — add it)	KEEP · NOW	The gate metric is Lead→Paid (card captured at the paywall = the purchase). Today it's UNMEASURED by source (Amplitude NO_DATA). Trial→paid ~50% is card-on-file — not the number to optimise.
R1 cancel-save send (missing from Nic's plan — the tell)	✅ SENT	Wave A sent 20 Jul — 24/24 delivered, 0 failures (variants by known cancel-reason). 108 subs / $1,504/mo at risk. Saves = replies to hello@; 48h scorecard 22 Jul; B/C after. Was the biggest omission — now closed.
5 landing-page variations for drop-off	GATE → wk 2–4	Right idea; adjudicable only after Task 19 opens the door and Task 3 cleans the signal. Testing upstream of a broken trial door optimizes the wrong stage.
Retarget non-purchasers (G + M)	GATE → wk 2–4	Warm intent audience (paywall/quiz drop-offs) — nothing like cold CAC. Good instinct; needs Task-3 clean exclusion lists. Run inside the existing baseline, not new budget.
Short-form 1–2 step quiz / lead-magnet	GATE → wk 2–4	Worth a test, but visitor→lead is already ~26–29% inside the quiz — lead volume isn't the leak. Design after Lead→Paid (by source) is measurable.
Old vs new quiz A/B	GATE → Tier 2	Quiz entry is working; leak is downstream. Un-adjudicable until the meter + dedup are fixed.
Increase Meta + Google budget	CUT · now	Spend ran hot in the promo (~$564/day peak) and produced only 6 new subs/wk — the "spend more" premise is live-falsified. Cold CAC ≫ LTV. Policy (SoT) = a $3K/mo ramp ceiling, not a splash; scale only after CAC is verified, not modelled.
New ad types / copy / keywords / bidding	GATE → Tier 2	Optimizing on 1.52× double-fired conversions trains the algorithm on ghosts. Fix Task 3 first, then expand creative.
iOS app-install ads **dev	CUT · now	Type-3 dev dependency + no SKAN/MMP wiring, pointed at ~500/wk app "ghosts" (2 active app trials). Build attribution before the campaign.
Affiliate: email blast + collaterals + funnel	SPLIT	Send the email now ($0, sets the pipeline). Hold the traffic until the trial door is open — affiliates who send non-converting traffic don't send twice.
Cold email / cold-call fitness gyms	CUT	B2B enterprise motion — different product, sales cycle, and skillset. No recurring-MRR path in 30 days for a 2-person team. Off the list.
ChatGPT / AI-search (GEO) optimization	DEFER	3–6 month organic compounding play. Not a 1-Nov break-even lever. Future content roadmap.

The reorder — Nic's plan, sequenced to the constraint

Tier 0 · this week · mostly $0 — stop the leak, open the door, fix the gauge

① R1 Wave A ✅ SENT 20 Jul (24/24) — replies = saves, scorecard 22 Jul, then B/C · ② Task 19 — UPDATE 22 Jul (Aga): the CURRENT checkouts are 100% working, taking payment daily — nothing broken. "checkouts-v3" is a SEPARATE enhancement project (richer data/design), Nic's Layer A/B/C sprint → Friday launch. Paid is gated only on clean deduped measurement (shipping), NOT on a broken door. See TRACKING-SYSTEM/CHECKOUT-V3-STATUS-2026-07-22.md · ③ Nic ships Task 3 (purchase dedup + GA4→Ads import — ✅ shipped 21 Jul, GTM published; ads end-to-end test runs after Nic finishes v3 checkout testing) · ④ wire the Lead→Paid meter — one clean event on BOTH checkout paths (carded trial-start + direct no-trial purchase), tagged by source · ⑤ email the warm list an annual offer (segmented freshest-first — not a 22.9K blast). No ad spend required.

Tier 1 · weeks 2–4 — convert what's already flowing

The 5 landing-page variations · warm retargeting on both channels (within the $3K/mo ramp ceiling (SoT)) · affiliate traffic switched on · short-form quiz soft-launch. All now adjudicable because the meter + dedup are live.

Tier 2 · amplify — only once the funnel holds & CAC is verified

Scale Google + Meta budget past baseline (with a verified CAC, not the modelled $1,185) · new ad types / keyword expansion · quiz A/B · iOS ads (after the Type-3 dep + SKAN/MMP).

⚠ The measurement HARD GATE (not a parallel task)

Purchase-event dedup (1.52×) + the Lead→Paid meter must land before any A/B winner call, GA4→Ads bid optimization, budget increase, or new-creative test. A winner declared on double-fired data is worse than no test — it locks in the wrong direction with false confidence. This is the exact failure mode to avoid.

STATUS UPDATE — 4 Aug 2026 (Nic's attribution day). The gate is most of the way down.
Verified live against the served files, not against a dev message (full ledger: CHECKOUT_ATTRIBUTION_CODE_AUDIT_GROUND_TRUTH_2026-08-03.md §0):

Purchase-event dedup — mostly closed. The server CAPI webhook always existed (event_id = the Stripe PI id) and v3's browser half now carries eventID. Nic reports the quiz half now matches too. ⚠️ We could NOT verify the quiz half from outside — quiz success 302s without a valid intent — so treat the 1.52× as unconfirmed-fixed until one real purchase or a Pixel Helper capture proves it (NIC-34, ~5 min). Until then this half of the gate stays UP.
Lead→Paid meter — the denominator is the blocker, and it is booked. The same metric still has three live values on the same day (GA4 ordered funnel, GA4 generate_lead, the AC quiz list — a 2.15× spread). Nic has "one definition of a lead on the scoreboard" on his own 5 Aug list (NIC-42). No projection or A/B call should quote a Lead→Paid rate until that lands.
What DID fully clear: UTM carry-through is proven end-to-end into Stripe (NIC-16), and the pe= recipient now rides into the intent on both estates (NIC-50) — which means email revenue attribution is wired, 25 days before its 29 Aug charter deadline.
🔴 The clean-data clock still governs everything above. Page-load Stripe minting stopped 3 Aug, so phantom trial counts collapse and checkout conversion jumps BY DESIGN. Nothing before 4 Aug is an admissible baseline. Honest read ≈11 Aug, reliable ≈17 Aug — which is the real date any budget-increase or A/B-winner decision can first be made honestly.

Where Nic is right — bend to him here

Task 19 is the unlock — his engineering instinct on the closed checkout is more specific and more correct than "fix the funnel." Warm retargeting and the affiliate channel are real, under-used levers (just sequenced after the door opens). Short-form quiz is a fair test once conversion is measurable. Nothing here is deleted — it's gated and reordered, not repudiated.

🔴 Don't let this doc fool us (integrity guards)

1. July's $26K is NOT progress to $15K — it's $20.0K one-time lifetime that never repeats and cannibalized subscriptions (net subs Jun −28 → Jul −45). Judge health on recurring.
2. Churn magnitude is a range, not a point: the 7-day snapshot (34/wk) implies ~19.6%/mo; the monthly trend implies ~9.5%/mo — a 2× gap (likely the cancel-queue timing). Direction is identical (net-negative) — but don't headline a single LTV or "months to $15K" until the two reconcile.
3. The gate metric is Lead→Paid (card-on-file: trial-start = purchase). Never cite trial→paid ~50% as "the healthy funnel" — it only measures "didn't cancel." Track Lead→Paid by source before any load-bearing projection.

Message to Nic (plain): Your plan is right about where the money is — the checkout fix, the conversion-import fix, and the landing variations are the levers. The issue is order. Right now ~180 people/week reach the paywall and most hit a closed door; the R1 save email went out 20 Jul (Wave A, 24/24) with $1,504/mo in the cancel queue; and the purchase event fires 1.52× so every ad decision is on inflated numbers. This week: R1 Wave A is out (20 Jul) — answer the replies; make Task 19 the dev priority, run Task 3 alongside, and email the list an annual offer. Then — once the door's open and the signal's clean — do exactly what you planned: retargeting, landing variants, affiliate traffic, quiz A/B, budget scale. The gym cold-outreach and ChatGPT SEO are good ideas for a different sprint, not 30-day cash levers. You named the fix — ship Task 19.

Fleet run: Growth CMO (verdict) + Growth Skeptic (AMEND, cleared with the both-dials reframe + measurement gate + July-cash quarantine + churn-as-range). cockpit numbers CONFIRMED live 16 Jul cold CAC $1,185 / LTV MODELLED Lead→Paid by source + real burn UNVERIFIED

⑯ Survival hustle vs the exit — the founder's playbook (added 16 Jul — fleet: Chief Exit Officer + Growth CMO)

The question behind the question: "As a cash-strapped founder I need money in the bank every month — does my conventional, manual, hand-holding hustle pull us away from the £1M exit north star?" Run through the Chief Exit Officer (exit-alignment) and the Growth CMO (the by-hand plan). Answer: no — with one fork.

⑯ The reconciliation — build the $15K vs fake it

Survival and the exit are the same target seen at two distances: a durable $15K net/month, churn stopped, each sale tagged to a source is the sellable asset. You don't choose between survival and exit — you choose between building the $15K and faking it. Build it from recurring subs → you're building the exit at the same time. Fake it with a lifetime fire-sale or un-instrumented spend → you buy one month and sell the asset. That fork is the only place the two ever split.

🎯 Does the brief change in survival mode? Yes — the emphasis, not the north star

The binding constraint right now is cash-in-bank + founder-hours, not measurement precision. So the cockpit brief flips:

① it now leads with the "this week, by hand, $0" hustle block · ② measurement (attribution / CAPI / GA4 / SKAN) demotes to Nic's weekly lane — none of it produces a single sub in 7 days.

The one discipline that survives full-hustle mode: every acquisition tagged to a knowable source, and every cancel and every save logs its reason (a spreadsheet is fine). That turns scrappy hustle into buyer-clean cohort data. Unmeasured hustle is fine for cash and fatal for the asset — a buyer discounts every un-attributed dollar to near-zero.

The "real hustling" — founder-run, $0, this week

Play	Net-recurring subs	Founder-hrs	Needs Task 19?	Exit-safe?
1. R1 → cancel queue: Wave A ✅ SENT 20 Jul (24/24, question-first, reasons logged). Now: answer hello@ replies <24h · 48h scorecard 22 Jul · Segments B/C after. The unforced error is closed.	HIGH	3–4	No	✅
2. Monthly→annual concierge to the ~66 monthly subs (highest cash-per-hour; kills your highest-churn cohort).	HIGH	2–3	No	✅
3. Stripe pause-intercept on active cancels (pause ≠ cancel). ~2hr setup, saves ~7–10/wk at source. new	HIGH	1–2	No	✅
4. At-risk DM to monthly subs 14+ days no-login — re-engage before the cancel event.	MED-HIGH	1–2	No	✅
5. DM/email the paywall-bouncers + quiz non-buyers — personal follow-up with the offer (a message, not a call). Concierge conversion of demand that already arrived.	MED-HIGH	2–3	Partial	✅
6. July-4 warm list → direct-to-annual offer (not trial). Send only if annual checkout works.	MED	3–4	Partial	✅
7. Member-get-member to the 750: "name-drop a friend, you both get a free month." Best-CAC channel you own.	MED	1 + 30m/wk	Referee needs door	✅
8. Reels → DM — route every ASSESS responder to the offer (Play 5 follow-up). Feeder, not standalone cash.	LOW→compounds	1–2/wk	No	✅

Plays 1 + 2 alone ≈ $4–7K cash this week if they convert at expected rates — from two emails, no Nic. Proposed offer prices — $97 comeback annual, $127 monthly→annual — are MODELLED: keep above the LTV floor & confirm vs the pricing SoT before sending.

Sequencing — what works NOW vs what waits for the door

Works now, no Nic: plays 1–5, 7, 8 (and 6 if the annual checkout is live). Waits for Task 19: any play that pours cold traffic into the trial funnel, and all paid scale. Hustling strangers into a closed door is the one way to waste your hours — run the retention + annual-close plays first; open the acquisition hustle the day Task 19 ships.

Which of the suggested channels stray from the exit? The revealing pattern — the channels that stray are the same ones that also don't make near-term cash. Increase paid budget (writes bad-payback cohorts into your own data room — valid only after Task 19 proves payback), iOS install ads (dark SKAN attribution, burns the clean-data clock), and cold-gym B2B (wrong motion, no 30-day path, founder-hours sink) are bad on both axes — see §⑮ for the CUT rationale. And lifetime stays banned: cash today, $0 MRR, sells ~$413 of LTV for ~$274 — the single most exit-toxic move.

Fleet run: Chief Exit Officer (exit-alignment adjudication) + Growth CMO (the by-hand survival plan), reconciled. thesis + cut-list CONFIRMED across both seats offer prices + cash estimates MODELLED real burn + Lead→Paid by source UNVERIFIED

⑰ Growth lead's read — Nic's full plan, sequenced (added 16 Jul — growth-lead advisory + external benchmark research)

Nic's complete Google + Meta + non-paid plan (top / mid / bottom-funnel) reviewed as a growth-lead advisory and pressure-tested against external subscription-app benchmarks. The pit stop: $15K recurring — annual counts (it's MRR-normalised + cash upfront); only lifetime is excluded. Verdict: right in completeness, wrong in order & emphasis.

⑰ The one-line verdict

Nic has catalogued nearly every real lever — good. But this is a "fill the funnel" plan, and our problem is a "the funnel leaks and the base drains" problem. Run it in this order and we pay to pour water into a leaking bucket. Three fixes: it's sequenced backwards (the bottom-funnel items are listed last but must come first), it over-indexes on paid and skips our free owned assets, and it treats churn as absent — when churn is the constraint.

📚 What the benchmarks say — don't scale paid into a leaking funnel

1. Don't scale paid before the funnel converts — the fix order is sequential, not parallel: fix the paywall/checkout, then scale paid (RevenueCat · Airbridge · RocketShip). For us the gate metric is Lead→Paid — we capture the card at the paywall (or take a direct discounted payment), so the purchase happens there, not at "trial→paid" (~50% by design, card-on-file). Right now the checkout door is closed (Task 19) and Lead→Paid isn't measured by source — so we're not ready to scale.
2. The math: ~$564/day → ~6 subs/wk ≈ ~$650 CAC vs ~$413 LTV — paid currently loses ~$250/sub. Attribution's broken so it's murky — but "murky & underwater" is never a signal to spend more.
3. Churn: fitness-app norm ~9.2%/mo; ours is at/above it. A plan for recurring $15K that is silent on churn fills a draining bucket.

Nic's plan, graded by funnel bucket

Bucket	Verdict	Why
Bottom-funnel — new checkout (Task 19), GA4→Ads fix (Task 3), 5 landing variations	DO FIRST	The right work — he listed it last. Checkout is the unlock; landing variations gate just behind the open door + clean signal.
Mid-funnel — quiz A/B, short-form quiz / lead magnet	GATE	Quiz entry works (~26–29% visitor→lead); the leak is downstream. Can't adjudicate a test blind — needs the meter live. Lead volume isn't the problem.
Top-funnel — scale budget, iOS ads, retargeting	MOSTLY PREMATURE	Budget↑ scales an underwater channel; iOS ads have no SKAN/MMP attribution. Retargeting non-purchasers is the one exception — warm, cheap; run inside the baseline.
Affiliate	SPLIT	Send the email now ($0, sets pipeline); hold the traffic until the door's open.
Cold email / call gyms	CUT	B2B enterprise motion — wrong product/cycle/skillset, no 30-day recurring path for a 2-person team.
ChatGPT / GEO	DEFER · free version only	AI-referral converts at 7.1% (near paid search) — real, but a 3–6mo compounding play. Get it free via community/Reddit presence; don't resource it.

iOS correction: if "iOS ads" means Google UAC / Meta iOS installs, that's the worst iOS channel. Apple Search Ads (ASA) captures search-intent users with 30–50% higher D30 retention and 30–50% lower iOS CAC when paired with ASO — which is free. We're weighing paying for installs while not optimising the listing that yields them for nothing.

The channels the plan misses — our cheapest cash

Nic's plan is ~90% paid. It skips the owned assets — which for a cash-strapped pit stop are the fastest cashflow at ~$0 CAC, and the evidence says owned beats paid at this stage:

Channel (not in the plan)	The evidence	Our asset
Winback of churned subs	Re-acquiring costs 5–25× less than new; a 4-email sequence reactivates ~14.7%. Target monthly churners (13.7% vs 4.6% annual), within 24h.	Thousands of ex-subs — money on the floor
Referral / member-get-member	Referral CAC $10–35 vs $40–100 paid; referred users convert 200–300% better.	750 happy 4.9★ + 100K historical
Email / lead reactivation	Owned, warm, free.	43K list + 22.9K leads
ASO (+ ASA if paying iOS)	ASA+ASO apps see 30–50% lower iOS CAC; ASO is free.	App Store listing — free installs
Organic content → assessment	$0; comment→DM→assessment is a live lead path.	Ath/Forge/TMA reel + YouTube machines (built)
Community (Reddit etc.)	Huge organic calisthenics audience — + Reddit is a top AI-citation source, so it doubles as GEO.	r/bodyweightfitness & friends
Annual-upgrade / plan-mix	Cash-forward; annual = 6× cash-efficient vs monthly.	~66 monthly subs to upgrade

⚠ The risks

Burn acceleration — scaling paid into a leaking funnel speeds the bleed (top risk). Training on ghosts — optimising on 1.52× double-fired data locks in the wrong bids. Founder diffusion — 15 tactics on a 2-person team = nothing ships; your time is the constraint. MRR ≠ monthly-plans — annual counts to MRR + gives cash upfront; "recurring not lifetime" is the filter, don't sell only monthly. The sugar-high — a promo month that touches $15K cash isn't $15K recurring.

The right course — the pit-stop sequence

Phase 0 · this week — stop the bleed + harvest owned demand (you, $0, no Nic)

R1 within 24h · dunning · Stripe pause-intercept · winback monthly churners · warm-list annual offer · referral to the 750 · DM paywall-bouncers. Cashflow now at ~$0 CAC.

Phase 0 · parallel — the prerequisites (Nic)

Task 19 (open the door) · Task 3 (fix the signal) · wire the Lead→Paid meter (one event on both checkout paths, by source). These must precede any paid scale.

Phase 1 · door open + Lead→Paid measured by source

5 landing variations · warm retargeting · affiliate traffic on · ASO. All now adjudicable.

Phase 2 · only once Lead→Paid is proven AND CAC < LTV by source

Then scale paid — ASA-first for iOS, Meta scale · quiz A/B · new creative / keywords. This is where Nic's whole top-funnel plan belongs — not wrong, just Phase 2.

Am I thinking about this right?

Yes in instinct — systematic, whole-funnel thinking is exactly right. Three corrections: (1) flip the sequence (bottom-funnel first); (2) lead with the free owned assets (winback, referral, email, organic) — fastest cash for a cash-strapped pit stop; (3) put churn at the centre — it's the constraint. Fix those three and this becomes the right plan.

Growth-lead advisory backed by external benchmarks: RevenueCat · Airbridge · RocketShip (fix funnel before paid), RetentionCheck (fitness churn 9.2%/mo), mean.ceo · Airbridge (winback ~14.7%), GrowSurf · Business of Apps (referral CAC $10–35), SEM Nexus · AppMedia (ASA vs UAC), Similarweb · Search Engine Land (GEO converts 7.1%). benchmarks CONFIRMED via research $650 CAC / $413 LTV MODELLED Lead→Paid by source UNVERIFIED

Live sources (live snapshot re-pulled 20 Jul 2026; closed-month actuals from 16 Jul): Stripe ×2 (monthly_cash_actuals · book_shape · multimonth_gain_loss · trials_by_month · verify_headlines), RevenueCat /v2/.../overview, ActiveCampaign /api/3/contacts. UNVERIFIED and gating the target: real outgoings (bank) + Lead→Paid by source (attribution dark). This is the master doc. Standalone, dashboard/brief untouched: open docs/company/ANALYTICS/TMA-15K-CASH-OPERATING-DOC-2026-07-16.html.

⑱ Growth Fleet findings — the 6-seat channel-neutral read (folded in 20 Jul 2026 · snapshot)

The verdict — unanimous across all six seats

Six channel owners (retention · funnel/CRO · pricing · paid · SEO · social/YouTube) ran independently on live data and all converged on the same conclusion the plan above already reached: churn is the binding constraint. At ~34 cancels/wk vs ~6 new/wk, no acquisition channel closes the gap — the next 30 days go to retention + converting traffic we already have, not new acquisition. This is independent confirmation of §⑫, not a competing view.

Tier 1 — save the bucket + bank hot-lead cash (all ~$0, ship ≤7d, touch MRR ≤30d): ① charge.failed dunning/smart-retry ✅ DIAGNOSED 21 Jul + ADJUDICATED 23 Jul — config already optimal (Smart Retries 4×/1mo, all emails ON, Card Updater on, Retain off); no config toggle. Matured June cohort: recovery only 6.6% by value → the lever is the built payment-recovery personal rail (LIVE 23 Jul, ~$160–320/mo MODELLED, lever #2) · ② pre-renewal save email to the cancel queue $3.5–4.2K + $306–376/mo · ③ re-engage ~326 paywall-dropoff leads $800–2K · ④ R1 Waves B/C · ⑤ confirm Task 19 works.

Tier 1.5 — the measurement gate (hard blocker): single-fire Lead→Paid event + dedupe the 1.52× double-fire + UTM everywhere. Nothing paid optimises, and no per-channel number is trustworthy, until this lands.

Tier 2 (near-free, builds measurement): BWA best-calisthenics-workout CTA→quiz+UTM · YouTube CTA/UTM sweep. HOLD: cold paid (falsified at $564/day→6 subs/wk) · warm retargeting until the meter · SEO ranking/GEO/organic social = 3–6mo bench.

Question	Answer
🔴 SUPERSEDED — CHARTER RULING 3 Aug 2026: YouTube is no longer a revenue lane. Aga: "it's both, but we most care about leads and customers because that's what drives the business" — call delegated to the CMO seat. P4-youtube moved REVENUE → CAPABILITY in FLEET_CHARTERS.json, graded on VIEWS not leads, exception-only reporting. The arithmetic: 15,032 views/28d × a normal 1.3% view→click = ~7 visits/day. A ≥30 leads/28d target needs ~3× the channel views, which ~2 long-forms/mo cannot deliver — unreachable, not merely unmet. Two prior numbers were also wrong and are corrected: the "3,695 YouTube sessions" were largely our own link-validator crawlers (bulk description edits trigger ~4 hits per video), and the lane was never "DARK" — it was measured. Withdrawn from this plan: the ≥30 leads/28d target and the $200–350/mo cash line. Fleet booked revenue falls $4,000–5,080 → $3,800–4,730 against a $5,667/mo gap — this makes the gap larger and honest; we were counting money this lane cannot earn this quarter. 🔔 Tripwire: views/28d ≥ 45,000 (~3× today) re-opens the charter and returns YouTube to the revenue tier. Still running at near-zero Aga attention: retention recuts + new-upload packaging (both unblocked), the description retrofit, and the weekly self-learn loop. Evidence: `marketing/youtube/YT_MASTER.md` §0–§0c · cockpit 📺 YouTube tab · queue `AGA-81` (closed).
BEST	Attack the bucket. Single best remaining action = the pre-renewal save email to the cancel queue + R1 saves (charge.failed ✅ diagnosed 21 Jul — config optimal; recovery now runs on the built payment-recovery personal rail, LIVE 23 Jul, lever #2). Best package = all of Tier 1 → ~$1.5–2.6K/mo repeatable + $4–6K one-time in 30 days, ~$0 cash, ~15 founder-hrs — closes ~37–65% of the gap with what we already own.
MINIMUM	~5–6 founder-hrs, $0: pre-renewal email to the queue · R1 B/C · confirm Task 19 (charge.failed ✅ diagnosed 21 Jul — config optimal; payment-recovery rail runs the saves). Bucket slows, cash comes in.
RISKS	A · Cash mirage — Aug fills with one-time/pulled-forward cash that looks like "gap closed" (the July lifetime trap); recognised MRR drops on monthly→annual. Lock the MRR baseline; track net MRR separate from cash. B · per-channel numbers are modelled until the meter. C · must accept deprioritising SEO/YouTube/paid 30d. D · retention recovers ~30–40%; the rest needs a working funnel (Task 19 + meter).

Full detail: open docs/company/ANALYTICS/GROWTH-FLEET-FINDINGS-2026-07-20.html · live tabs on the cockpit: 🔍 SEO · 📺 YouTube · 📈 Growth Fleet (tma-growth-cockpit-2026.netlify.app).

⑲ Email execution plan — the repeatable rail (folded summary 20 Jul 2026)

The email estate's own execution plan — 23 tasks, 4 phases. Expected ≈6 weeks out: ~$1,100–2,500/mo new + ~$150–300/mo defended estimates — email alone doesn't close the $4K gap; it builds the repeatable rail and stops the leaks. Every living contact ends up in exactly one loop with a designed END; ~8–15K dead contacts sunset for deliverability (saves $0 on the bill — AC tier locked till Apr 2027); new leads self-route forever.

Phase	What
1 · Money now	R1 cancel-save (✅ Wave A sent 20 Jul) · annual-offer 3-email series → the 6,050 warm non-customers ($157 via the trial door, no discount) ~$700–1,500/mo · switch on 976 Cancelled Win-Back · 967 test batch of 500.
2 · Fill the spine	Route every routable contact into a circulating nurture; wire the shoulder-course revenue lane for spine-finishers.
3 · Build defences	Dunning, abandoned-cart recovery (756/757 "Part 1 & Part 2 – Abandoned Cart Reminder" BUILT — 3 emails PASS lint, field 56 + `%ABANDONED_CHECKOUT_URL%` wired; waiting on 1 Nic PaymentIntent-metadata task; ≈$200–350/mo), front-door fixes — stop the bleed.
4 · Shrink to a healthy list	After the held group finishes: sunset ~8–15K dead contacts for stronger sender reputation (deliverability only — saves $0 on the bill; AC tier locked till Apr 2027).

Aga's email to-do — what needs YOU, in order

☐ Switch on 976 Cancelled Win-Back (1 min) + reply GO → fires the 98 win-backs + 238 warm · ☐ Say yes to the 967 test batch of 500 (5 min) · ☐ Review the 3 annual-offer emails when they land in your browser (15 min) → ~20-min guided setup · ✅ Three screenshots DONE 21 Jul (764 ends dead · Inactive=58d · AC Pro 100K $761/mo — tier LOCKED till Apr 2027; archiving saves $0, sunset = deliverability only) · ☐ Review 976b + renewal emails when rendered · ☐ Approvals: 982 clean-up · retire 978 Evergreen · archives · ☐ Read 3 verification reports (abandoner · dunning · trial coverage) · ☐ One AWOS carve-out ruling for the estate-repair builds · ☐ Tell me the finish date of your held-group release.

Full plan (23 tasks, provenance, ID files): tma-email-plan-2026.netlify.app ↗ · also a live 📧 Email Plan tab on the cockpit.

⑳ 🎯 THE ONE execution list — everything, one place, in order

The actions from the plan, the Growth Fleet, and the email execution plan — merged into one priority-ordered list so nothing is chased in three places. Ordered by the filter (§⑬): stop the leak → bank warm demand → open the door + see the sale → near-free. Everything else WAITS.

This is the "make & save the sale" list. Its companion is the "build & wire" list — Nic's step-by-step to SEE and ENABLE the sale (the 27 wiring/instrumentation/build tasks): the Analytics Master Brief ↗. The two meet at the seam — Lane 3 below (checkout + measurement) IS that Brief, compressed to two rows.

✅ PROGRESS 21 Jul (full record: SESSION_MASTER_SUMMARY_2026-07-20_21.md): 986 Welcome Lifetime Members E2–E6 wired + 57 July-4th lifetime buyers injected (activation → testimonials); 976 Cancelled Win-Back triggers fixed + offer ruled (annual SAVE30, reply-based, $9.99 retired); reply-fulfilment machine wired (drafts Jesse replies daily); retention baseline corrected to the truth (D7 20%/D28 6%); Data Verification Law locked across all 121 agents.

#	Lane / action	Owner	Impact
LANE 1 — STOP THE LEAK · churn · this week · $0
1	Stripe charge.failed (web) + rc_billing_issue (app) recovery. Config optimal (nothing to toggle); the recovery lever = the built payment-recovery personal rail. Full context = Brief Task 21 ↗ (same lever, don't scope twice).	Claude (built) · Aga (send)	✅ DIAGNOSED 21 Jul + rail BUILT 23 Jul · web config optimal; recovery on the personal rail (~$160–320/mo MODELLED, lever #2); app = Apple/Google's own
2	Pre-renewal save email to the cancel queue (mostly annual non-renewers)	Aga + email fleet	$3.5–4.2K + $306–376/mo
3	R1 cancel-save Waves B/C after the 22 Jul scorecard	Aga (auto-machine)	$310–520/mo
4	976 Cancelled Win-Back — ✅ ACTIVE, triggers fixed 21 Jul (only truly-expired enter). Offer ruled: annual `SAVE30` $109.90 reply-based ($9.99/mo retired); reason-matched. Left: gate the reason-matched copy → Aga activates; Nic confirms SAVE30-on-annual.	Aga + Nic	defended MRR
LANE 2 — BANK WARM DEMAND · email + funnel · this week · $0
5	Annual-offer 3-email series → the 6,050 warm non-customers (no discount)	Aga review + email fleet	$700–1,500/mo
6	Re-engage the ~326 paywall-dropoff leads (3-email + 50%-off)	Funnel + email	$800–2K + $200–400/mo
7	967 test batch of 500 (new-lead nurture)	Aga (5 min)	routing test
LANE 3 — OPEN THE DOOR + SEE THE SALE · Nic · unblocks everything — full step-by-step = the Analytics Master Brief ↗ (Tasks 19, 1, 5, 9, 8, 2)
8	Confirm / close Task 19 (working trial checkout)	Nic (0.5h)	all acquisition
9	The measurement gate — Lead→Paid event + dedupe 1.52× + UTM everywhere	Nic (~10–16h)	HARD GATE before any A/B, bid, budget↑
LANE 4 — NEAR-FREE + BUILDS MEASUREMENT
10	BWA best-calisthenics-workout CTA→quiz + UTM (then redesign)	SEO owner	$40–85/mo + wiring
11	YouTube CTA/UTM sweep on the 8 best videos	Aga/Nic	$40–80/mo + wiring
HOLD — fails the filter for now
—	Cold paid (falsified) · warm retargeting (until the meter) · SEO ranking/GEO · organic social scale	—	WAITS

If you do one thing: the charge.failed check is ✅ DONE (21 Jul — config optimal; recovery now runs on the built payment-recovery personal rail, LIVE 23 Jul, lever #2). New #1 = the pre-renewal save email to the cancel queue + R1 saves (voluntary cancels are the real churn driver). the AC "archive to drop a billing tier" play is DEAD — tier LOCKED till Apr 2027, downgrade would cost MORE; sunset only for deliverability, no 6 Aug action all cash figures MODELLED until the Lead→Paid meter lands churn / queue / MRR CONFIRMED